Juan Hates Democracy

Remember the episode of M*A*S*H where everyone was celebrating and preparing to go home after hearing a rumor that an armistice was about to be signed ending the war? Everyone, that is, except "Trapper" John who had been around longer and had seen similar rumors amount to nothing. Everyone thought he was such a downer. Sure enough, the jubilation turns out to be premature and the war goes on.

Well, "Trapper" Juan Cole is showing similar skepticism about all this "democracy is on the march in the Middle East" cheerleading. Cole, who knows his way around the region, thinks it's a bit soon to be celebrating:

The simplistic master narrative constructed by the partisans of President
George W. Bush held that the January 30 elections [in Iraq] were a huge success,
and signalled a turn to democracy in the Middle East. Then the [Lebanese]
anti-Syrian demonstrations were interpreted as a yearning for democracy inspired
by the Iraqi elections.

This interpretation is a gross misunderstanding of the situation in the
Middle East. Bush is not pushing with any real force for democratization of
Saudi Arabia (an absolute monarchy) or Pakistan (where the elected parliament
demands in vain that General Pervez Musharraf take off his uniform if he wants
to be president), or Tunisia (where Zayn Ben Ali has just won his 4th unopposed
term as president), etc. Democratization is being pushed only for regimes that
Bush dislikes, such as Syria or Iran. The gestures that Mubarak of Egypt made
(officially recognized parties may put up candidates to run against him, but not
popular political forces like the Muslim Brotherhood) are empty.

[snip]

The Lebanese have been having often lively parliamentary election campaigns
for decades. The idea that the urbane and sophisticated Beirutis had anything to
learn from the Jan. 30 process in Iraq is absurd on the face of it. Elections
were already scheduled in Lebanon for later this spring.

Moreover, the anti-Syrian protests were not a signal that the Lebanese
wanted to be like American-occupied Iraq. They were a signal that the Druze,
Maronites and a section of the Sunnis had agreed to try to push Syria out. It
was the US who had invited Syria into Lebanon in 1976. And it was a sign that
Lebanon is still deeply divided, since the Shiite plurality largely supports
Syria. Given the pro-Syrian sentiment in some Sunni cities like Tripoli, it may
well be that a majority of Lebanese want Syria to remain in some capacity. If
that were true, what would it do to Mr. Bush's master narrative of the march of
democracy?

I keep thinking how sad it is that Americans know so little about the outside world that simplistic views like the one being put forth by the Bush administration are accepted without question.

And speaking of Lebanon, Ezra Klein is seeing a revolution lead by hot chicks.