There are a million Kurds in Baghdad, a million Sunnis in the Shiite deep
south, and lots of mixed provinces (Ta'mim, Ninevah, Diyalah, Babil, Baghdad,
etc.). There is a lot of intermarriage among various Iraqi groups.
Then, how do you split up the resources? If the Sunni Arabs don't get
Kirkuk, then they will be poorer than Jordan. Don't you think they will fight
for it? The Kurds would fight to the last man for the oil-rich city of Kirkuk if
it was a matter of determining in which country it ended up.
If the Kurds got Kirkuk and the Sunni Arabs became a poor cousin to Jordan,
the Sunni Arabs would almost certainly turn to al-Qaeda in large numbers. Some
Iraqi guerrillas are already talking about hitting back at the US mainland. And,
Fallujah is not that far from Saudi Arabia, which Bin Laden wants to hit, as
well, especially at the oil. Fallujah Salafis would hook up with those in Jordan
and Gaza to establish a radical Sunni arc that would destabilize the entire
Divorced from the Sunnis, the Shiites of the south would no longer have any
counterweight to religious currents like al-Dawa, the Supreme Council for
Islamic Revolution in Iraq, and the Sadrists. The rump Shiite state would be
rich, with the Rumayla and other fields, and might well declare a Shiite Islamic
republic. It is being coupled with the Sunnis that mainly keeps them from going
down that road. A Shiite South Iraq might make a claim on Shiite Eastern Arabia
in Saudi Arabia, or stir up trouble there.
As always, Cole provides valuable insights not available in any US corporate media. Read him daily and learn.