Tuesday, June 17, 2008

John Dole

My predictions aren’t worth the pixels they’re displayed on but what the hell, here’s my early prediction for the final results of the 2008 election: Obama wins with 379-159 electoral vote margin. How did I come up with that? Well, I ain’t no Chuck Todd so I simply took the numbers from the 1996 election where Bill Clinton trounced the hapless Bob Dole.


I’ve said all along that John Sidney McCain’s candidacy reminds me all the world of Bob Dole’s fruitless effort. Of course some of the states that went D in ’96 will go R this year and vice-versa, but overall the numbers will be in the same ballpark.

7 comments:

nancy said...

Looks about right to me!

geek_guy said...

Man, why am I getting flashbacks of the old SNL "da Bears" skits?

rickmonday said...

I dont know, Obama's campaign last week said that they may not even go after Ohio and Florida that hard. I think Obama will pick up Colorado but he has his work cut out for him if he doesnt win the 2 big swing states. I do think he has a shot in Virginia but I am not conceding N.Carolina to him yet. I think Michigan will be a big win for whoever wins that state. But I think it will be very close either way, except in the popular vote. Obama by more than 1.5 million.

geek_guy said...

RM Now:
But I think it will be very close either way, except in the popular vote. Obama by more than 1.5 million.

RM then

Of course it doesnt matter now that Obama was given the nomination. I still predict if Hillary is not the VP then McCain wins; not by the total vote but by the electoral vote.


and repeated an hour later...

predict an overwhelmingly popular vote win for Obama and yet McCain will take the electoral college votes. Of course if Obama chooses Hillary as the VP then the dems will win in a slaughter.


In review, 2 weeks ago he says McCain wins electoral vote and Obama wins popular vote. Now he claims the electoral vote "is close" and Obama wins popular vote.

2 points
1) Good job moving the goal posts.
2) Popular vote does not count!!!

rickmonday said...

geek,

I dont know what you tried to do with your analysis but I have stayed consistent. I do think McCain will win the electoral vote and I still believe Obama will win the popular vote. I didnt move the goalposts.

geek_guy said...

I dont know, Obama's campaign last week said that they may not even go after Ohio and Florida that hard.

Latest polls

* Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
* Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent; (Obama was down 40-44)
* Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent. (Obama was up 46-40)

As for the Hillary VP thing...

"Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama. He now leads in all three of the major swing states, although his margins in Florida and Ohio are small," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Dave said...

"Man, why am I getting flashbacks of the old SNL "da Bears" skits?"

Hey, if it were Ditka against McCain it would be 538-0.