Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Tough Nut

As I mentioned yesterday, Ray LaHood is at least contemplating vacating his Illinois 18th Congressional District seat. Some dreamers think this might be an opportunity for a Democratic pickup:
Illinois' 18th district has a PVI of R+5.5 and voted for Bush by 54-44 and 58-42 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively. While it wouldn't be the easiest nut to crack, an open seat coupled with a strong local Democratic name is always a game changer, even in a lean-Republican district like this one.
OK, all that’s needed is a “strong local Democrat”. Does such a thing exist in the 18th? I know nothing about Peoria politics but I doubt the rest of the district would have much to offer.

So we may be left with a revised version of the old Steve Martin bit on the how to become a millionaire: “First, get a million dollars”. How can the Dems take the 18th? First, get a strong local Democrat.

1 comment:

Will said...

This is part of the problem with having a statewide Democratic Party that doesn't work on developing a downstate farm team of locally elected Democrats.

If Barack Obama is the nominee for President I think Democrats could defnintely pick up this seat. It might also help if the Republicans nominate an extreme conservative. A majority of the voters in that district are moderate.

When LaHood thought about running for Governor people talked about a States Attorney from the Peoria area running but I can't remember his name. I'm not surprised to see John Sullivan's name mentioned on the other blog.

The ideal candidate for this district would be strong on farm/rural issues and very pro-union. Democrats can win this one if they don't allow the election to become about gay marriage, abortion and gun control.