Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Spring is Here!

From the National Weather Service:

A POWERFUL SPRING-LIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHTWITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

And as long as we are talking weather…

Have you noticed here, on October 16th, there is still very little color in the leaves except green? And 98% of the leaves are still on the trees.

The average first day with a temperature at or below freezing in Springfield is October 13th. That hasn’t happened yet and the 10 day forecast (taking us to 10/25) doesn’t have any temperatures lower then the 40s. I wonder if there’s ever been an October around here without a freezing temperature.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yes, that is terrible. Check this out for fall time in Illinois: http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/hilites/press/firstfallfrost100101.asp

I'm not sure why the weather service uses 30-year average rather than averaging all the way back to the 19th century? My fear is using the 30-year average would lull people into false sense of what is "normal" temperature as the world warms.

Anonymous Communist said...

Yes, I noticed that too re: the leaves. And sorry to be Johnny McSmartypants, but it's only the 16th.

Dave said...

Thank you A/C, I've corrected my typo. CommieSmartypants.

JeromeProphet said...

Warmer, and drier.

We should get used to this.

The trend will he warmer and drier in the Midwest.

It's not something we'll be able to reverse at this point.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't do everything possible to stop adding to the problem.

JP

Lainer said...

Yes, we have gone all the way through October with no freezing temps before. I believe the latest first frost ever in Springfield was sometime in early November. Don't remember exactly when but it was not within the last 30 years. The National Weather Service Lincoln office website at www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx has an extensive list of local weather records.

RickMonday said...

The following information can be found here:http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/wsp/climate/ClimateYest_observedmap2.asp

"Illinois mean annual temperatures (see below) have risen since the mid-1800s, but it has not been a smooth upward trend. Starting at a low point in the 1860s, temperatures in Illinois rose steeply until they topped out in the 1930s and 1940s. After the late 1940s, temperatures declined considerably until the cold and snowy winters of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Finally, in last 30 years temperatures have been rising once again in Illinois. The current annual temperature averages are approaching those of the 1930s, but unlike the 1930s, the warmth today is found mostly during the cold half of the year, especially during winter and early-to-mid spring (not shown). "

So my question is: How do you explain the rise in the 1860 to 1940s when carbon output was much lower than it is today, and how do you explain the drop from the 1940s until the early 1980s? It seems to me that we are just on a warming trend and that it will reverse course once again in the future.

Lainer said...

A recent issue of the Illinois State Museum magazine notes that early Illinois weather records from the 1850s through 1880s record several instances of first frosts as early as August and last frosts as late as June.
In 1859, Ottawa recorded a 32-degree temperature at least once in EVERY MONTH including July -- meaning there was NO growing season to speak of in northern Illinois that year! The climate in Illinois prior to 1880 was on average too cold to reliably raise corn. This might have marked the tail end of what has come to be known as the "Little Ice Age" in the Northern Hemisphere from roughly the 15th through 19th centuries.