Friday, November 04, 2005

Battle of the Forecasts: Game Two

As you may recall, two months ago I pitted the National Weather Service against The Weather Channel in a weather forecasting cage match. In the first round, The Weather Channel was victorious, coming closer to what actually happened weather-wise. Time for a rematch.

24 hours out, the two weather outlets have greatly differing forecasts for tomorrow (Saturday) night. In this corner, the National Weather Service:
Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. South wind 14 to 18 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Opposing them in the red trunks, and defending champion, The Weather Channel (
Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. Low 46F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph.
OK, both sources agree exactly on the temperature: a low of 46. But the difference in forecasts for precipitation couldn’t be more stark: The National Weather Service virtually guarantees it while The Weather Channel says, “No way, Jose”. For purposes of this competition, I will stipulate that Saturday night begins at 7:00 pm.

Game on!

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